StockBullz.com: Your Daily Stocks Blog - Silver Stocks

Time To Get This Show Back On The Road!

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 19:01:57 -0500

Happy New Year!

Boy I just looked at the time I posted last and it has been almost a full year since my last post. The past year has been a very challenging one for resource stocks but I am very optimistic about 2008.

Oil is over $100, Uranium is bouncing back to $90 but where are our dear share prices?????

In the pits!!! And more than half of Canadian fund managers are predicting drops in the TSX.

But remember folks, monkeys have a better chance of outperforming the TSX than fund managers do, so whatever they say to do, we should be doing the oposite!

So how did I do in 2007 you may ask??

Well here is a little rundown of what I was in:

KXL: Huge gains, I am very satisfied. Stock went up sharply, then down sharply. I started buying when it was flatlining. The stock is now hitting new highs and I still in but with my finger ready to pull the trigger if it drops 10-20% from current levels.

NUX: Was a large holding of mine. Am slowly downsizing but the management team is still great on this dormant stock. Good news will definetely boost this stock very fast. Right now sitting at about two bucks off highs of around 3.50 so it'll be interesting to see how long it will take to run higher.

The Story Behind Canadian Mining Speculation

Mon, 03 Jul 2006 15:11:40 -0400

I just finished reading a tiny little 100 page book by the title of "The Story Behind Canadian Mining Speculation". It was written about 50 years ago by T.H. Mitchell and it should be a must read for any current mining speculator. If you can get your hands on it that is. Try searching for it at your university library because that is where I found this copy. Anyways, here are some great bits of information that I got from the book:

It should be clearly understood by the Canadian investor that the majority of the "penny" stock companies are worthless and always will be worthless. This has been proven time and time again. Yet their stocks have a definite value as a speculative trading medium; in other words, the stocks themselves are not worthless so long as somebody is willing to buy them. Thus, one has to be pessimistic about the possibilities of the companies, yet optimistic about the profit opportunities which their stocks present. And these are the sentiments which guide the professional traders.

Mexican Election

Sun, 02 Jul 2006 16:20:51 -0400

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - For all the talk of the rise of Latin America's left, Mexican presidential hopeful Felipe Calderon could show on Sunday that, while unfashionable, U.S.-style conservatives can still win hearts and minds.
Years of stuttering market reforms under outgoing President Vicente Fox from free trade to a credit card bonanza have taken root among many voters who fear leftists so popular in countries like Venezuela and Bolivia could bring ruin.
Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is a slight favorite in Sunday's elections but polls are so close that a win for the Harvard-educated Calderon, promising more foreign investment and pro-business reforms, is a real possibility.

I think that a win for Lopez would make mining executives with properties in Mexico just a little uneasy.

If Lopez got influenced by Chavez, then maybe he would also want to nationalize the mineral properties that are so valuable.

We shall see what hap

Trend Reversal For Silvercorp?

Thu, 22 Jun 2006 17:02:58 -0400

As you can see by the chart above, Silvercorp closed today just below its 30 day Moving Average.

Tomorrow two things can happen: either it breaks out, or it retreats back and continues its spiral down.

I won't try to predict what will happen; reacting to what actually happens is smarter I think.

Gordon recently received the following summary on Silvercorp's progress from Cathy:

The large American Funds purchase Asian mining stocks from the Hong Kong exchange, while the AMEX mining stocks gets hammered by the hedge funds. This is why we are re-evaluating whether Silvercorp should be listed on the AMEX; in particularly after FNX Mining delisted from the AMEX. We may or may not list on Hong Kong. It will take time to examine the cost benefit as it typically cost in excess of $1.5 million dollars annually to maintain each addition listing. This is attributed to annual listing cost, lawyers, accountants and marketing efforts. There is no point in listing on an exchange unless there will be substantial trading with that listing.

There are a few startling aspects of Silvercorp that investors should evaluate when deciding whether to buy and hold our stock as a solid long term growth investment.

1. Most mining projects takes 20 years to bring a grass root project from exploration into production. According to statistic one in 3,000 exploration projects becomes a mine. Silvercorp brought Ying into production in 20 months; August 2004 start of North American approach exploration to March 2006 award of the mining permit.

2. Most mining projects require +$1 billion, $500 million or $200 million in capital expenditures to initiate mining. Silvercorp is targeting out-to-out capital expenditures of $13.5 million to complete the necessary infrastructure. If Silvercorp chooses, we have the luxury to expense the whole amount in the first year and still make a respectable profit.

3. At current operating costs, if silver went to $2 per ounce, we will still make a profit for our shareholders.

4. We may see strong 3rd and 4th quarters keeping in mind we are in our very 1st quarter of the first year of production. There are three start-up challenges that we must conquer. The concrete paved road must be completed, enough stopes have to be sufficiently prepared for mining and the 600 t/d mill with tailing impoundment must be built. Consequently, much of our energy is focused on just construction itself. However, do not be too surprised if even in the 1st quarter of the first year of production, Silvercorp will yield a profit.

5. Silvercorp's Ying project has consistent bonanza grades throughout the deposit and exceptional low operating costs. The combination is synergistic in yielding lucrative profits.

6. The demand for silver in China has been growing consistently at a rate of 12% annually while the Chinese GDP growth has been growing on average 8%. China's thirst for metals as I read yesterday, June 20th, in the Financial Times front page, China galvanizes relationship with Africa for their metal resources.

7. We are at the birth of becoming a silver producer as of April 2006, this is the very 1st quarter of the 1st year of production. Please note we will see the financial statement of the 1st quarter around end of August 2006. We will likely see the last exploration year 2005 financial statement within four weeks. Perhaps some of our investor may be proud to reflect years from now how they had invested in Silvercorp at the very start. There is enormous growth potential for Silvercorp. As the company matures into a significant silver producer, there will be many trials and tribulations as we just witnessed with the retracement of metal prices and the investors took a lemming's mentally without consideration for the cemented in fundaments of Silvercorp.

In my passage of providing engineering services to more than a dozen mining operations (not exploration projects), I have never…never seen profit margin like Ying.

I am also enclosing our lasted presentation for your information.

Please note most of what I write is my personal outlook and does not necessary reflect the company's perspective.

Another Way To Follow Trends

Sat, 17 Jun 2006 21:41:05 -0400

In my introduction to Trend Following, I was telling you that a way to judge a stock's trend is to simply see whether the current price is above or below its 30 day moving average.

This is a valid system but there are many other ways to follow trends too.

There is a very useful graph in the Trend Following book which shows the best moving average combinations that have given the best returns when backtested.

The best moving average combination is the 50 day and 110 day moving average combination. This combination produces an outstanding 20-22% average profit per year.

And according to this combination, Silvercorp is still in an uptrend, unlike if it is evaluated solely on a 30 day moving average.

Therefore as long as the 50 day M.A. stays above the 110 day M.A. the stock should keep rising.

As you can see by the chart above, the trend is still down for CUX. My other short candidate YRI is actually still in an uptrend if you use this combination so I might have to cover that for a tiny loss.

Silvercorp Intends to buy back 1,000,000 Common Shares

Wed, 14 Jun 2006 12:56:58 -0400

VANCOUVER, British Columbia – June 13, 2006 – Silvercorp Metals Inc. .(“Silvercorp”) , is of the opinion that prevailing market conditions have resulted in Silvercorp’s shares being undervalued relative to the immediate and long term value of Silvercorp’s Ying Silver-Lead-Zinc Mine in Henan Province, China. Accordingly, Silvercorp intends to commence a Normal Course Issuer Bid to acquire up to 1,000,000 of its Common Shares (being approximately 2% of the 47,818,407 shares currently issued and outstanding), over a one year period. Purchases will be made at the discretion of the Directors at prevailing market prices, through the facilities of the TSX Exchange. The Company intends to hold all shares acquired under the issuer bid for cancellation. The Issuer Bid is subject to regulatory approval.

Brilliant Market Analysis

Tue, 13 Jun 2006 11:46:03 -0400

By Jack Chan at www.traderscorporation.com

6/11/2006

Thank you for your feedback and comments in regards to my previous commentary, “A golden opportunity?” In reaction, many readers have asked me why is it that after having been a consistent buyer of the gold market for the past five years, now am a seller of gold?

I have a simple answer: opportunity.

History often repeats itself to those who fail to learn from the past.

And history is unfolding, six years after the last lesson. But judging from the opinions of the general consensus, not many are seeing what is unfolding.

Closing In On The Second Double Bottom?

Wed, 07 Jun 2006 16:37:28 -0400

Another huge down day on the market. Makes you want to sell eh?

That is of course normal human emotion but I would rather be a buyer than a seller right now. People are scared about all kinds of things and they are selling stocks right and left.

But there is a chance we could complete our double bottom like I was predicting within the next couple days.

Let me display a couple of charts to speculate on what might happen in the coming weeks and months.

Let's start with Silvercorp. This is one of the best companies out there yet it has been doing no better than many of the other Silver stocks. The current price is down almost 35% off our all time high. This is a great example of Bob Bishop's teachings that timing is more important than the right stock.

Next, let's take a look at the chart for the overall Venture market. It's looks quite similar to Silvercorp's and many other junior companies we're looking at.

Introducing LatestDiamonds.com!

Tue, 06 Jun 2006 20:19:12 -0400

I would like to thank all you people here reading my opinions. I really appreciate it.

I would also like to thank you for making my latest... sites quite successful as well.

There are now 4...no 5 latest... sites:

and...

Yes, since I think that the diamond sector will become more and more popular over the coming year(s), it was a no-brainer for me.

There are currently 41 diamond stocks that are being tracked. This is about 1/3 of how many Uranium stocks are being tracking and about 1/2 of how many silver stocks exist right now.

In my opinion, that means that there is much room for growth in the sector.

News on Silverstone

Mon, 05 Jun 2006 14:53:11 -0400

VANCOUVER BC, - SILVERSTONE RESOURCES CORP. (“Silverstone”) and CAPSTONE MINING CORP. (“Capstone”) is pleased to announce that Silverstone has completed its initial public offering by way of distribution as a dividend-in-kind to the shareholders of Capstone. The dividend-in-kind was paid on the basis of one unit of Silverstone for every three shares of Capstone held. The units consist of one common share in the capital stock of Silverstone and one half of one transferable share purchase warrant to purchase common shares in the capital stock of Silverstone. Delivery of the units of Silverstone will be made by Silverstone’s transfer agent to all registered shareholders of Capstone, provided that for certain shareholders resident in the United States the units will be held in trust until dividend entitlements can be distributed in accordance with applicable U.S. federal and state securities laws. Delivery of Silverstone’s common shares to shareholders of Capstone holding shares through broker-dealers will be conducted through the applicable securities depositories.

Silvercorp Update

Wed, 31 May 2006 20:08:31 -0400

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(CCNMatthews - May 30, 2006) - Silvercorp Metals Inc. ("Silvercorp) (TSX:SVM - News) is pleased to report the completion of an update of the mineral resources at the Ying mine. The National Instrument ("NI") 43-101 Technical Update Report (the "Resource Report") dated May 26, 2006 supplements the Scoping Report completed April 18, 2006. This Resource Report almost doubles the Measured + Indicated mineral resources and more than doubles the Inferred mineral resources previously reported.
The Resource Report estimate is summarized below:
The current estimated mineral resources of Silver (Ag), Lead (Pb) and Zinc (Zn) in parts of 14 veins explored to date at the Ying mine in grams per tonne (g/t) and Troy ounces per metric tonne (oz/t) are as follows:
Summary of mineral resource estimates at the Ying mine - 26 May 2006

Great Capstone News

Thu, 25 May 2006 22:18:38 -0400

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(CCNMatthews - May 25, 2006) - CAPSTONE MINING (TSX:CS - News) is pleased to report the recent progress at its Cozamin copper-silver-zinc mine located in Zacatecas State, Mexico.

Highlights

- Construction is 95% complete with mill and plant testing currently underway.

- Commissioning is planned to begin June 1.

- Total cash on hand will be US$20.0 million after all construction costs are incurred.

- Estimated average annual metal production is 16 million lbs of copper, 700,000 oz of silver and 4 million lbs of zinc at 1,000 tonnes per day.

San Roberto Mine

Four stopes are being developed for mining (2 are complete) and producing ore. These stopes are located on the east and west side of level 8 and central and east side of level 9. On level 9, an additional 30 m of drifting to the east will be completed by the end of May. Development on level 10 has commenced with drifting both east and west on this level. To date, 15,000 tonnes of ore have been stockpiled on surface.

Where's the Market Heading Next?

Mon, 22 May 2006 22:58:14 -0400

This correction we've had for a week or two now has really begun to unveil some nice bargains. Many stocks are down 30-50% from their highs. Like I said, I think we might have a bounce this week but will go lower and/or sideways until around august.

Let me now highlight some other people's opinions:

Clive Manud :

The action on Friday was characteristic of a reversal and it was sector wide with Reversal Days showing up in the charts of the gold stock indices and many gold and silver stocks. The action in the metals themselves was less convincing, with silver looking like it had bottomed, at least for now, but gold itself looks rather ambiguous.

Even before they started to head south in earnest, Precious Metals stocks were seriously underperforming gold and silver, and as soon as the metals broke down, stocks caved in. The flip side of this relationship is that we can expect PM stocks to hit bottom ahead of the metals, and, when the time comes, we should be on the lookout for this as a great buying opportunity. On a trading basis we appear to be at a buy spot now, and some of the stronger stocks may not drop below the current lows. We should remain aware that while the metals are likely to drop to lower levels after a near-term bounce, stocks may not drop below current levels, or if they do, not by much.

Silverstone Situation

Thu, 18 May 2006 13:05:33 -0400

Perhaps some of you (like me) decided that the Capstone spinoff of Silverstone might be a good investment.

So far it is not looking very nice for Capstone for reasons that I cannot understand.

I have done the due diligence and cash flow analysis for them and they look extremely cheap to me. In my opinion they should be a $10 stock, not one struggling at $1.50.

But the markets are never rational so it may take some time for the market to value Capstone as it should be. At these levels in the $1.40 range are looking very nice. However, there could be further downside. I don't know how much but if it hits a dollar (in worst case?), I think that is a sreaming buy!

But keep in mind that as long as you bought at the right time, you will soon be getting Silverstone shares and warrants. The great thing is that Silverstone shares will be only held by the people who held Capstone shares.

Because of the low float of about 24 million shares that could be held tightly, I think Silverstone, on a single piece of good drill results could really soar.

Tough Times

Wed, 17 May 2006 17:12:39 -0400

Just like our price run-up in the market was perhaps overdone, it looks like our downturn will also be overdone.

The markets are never rational and I have a feeling we still might drop quite a bit.

The fundamentals of our commodity bull market haven't changed one bit but the emotions have.

People are beginning to panic and they just want to get out of all their resource stock as soon as possible.

It looks like we might have another period something like October 2005 which was a scary time to be holding Oil & Gas stocks in particular.

However, the patient and cool investor who did not panic profited very well if he just stuck with his positions as all the stocks rebounded very well as soon as October was done.

The one positive thing however will be that when this correction is done, there will be substantial gains to be made by buying some great companies at bargain prices.

So make sure you have some cash ready to buy in when the correction finishes. I still don't know when that will be, but I will try to be using charts and following the media. When the media turns unbelievably bearish on the market, gold, commodities etc, that will be the perfect time to get in.