StockBullz.com: Your Daily Stocks Blog - Gold Stocks

Aurelian Trading Plan

Tue, 18 Jul 2006 20:11:31 -0400

I have been cautiously long a small test position in Aurelian for a couple weeks now and all was going well until today.

Why?

Because Aurelian reversed its trend today. That is, the share price fell below its 30 day Moving Average.

Now of course, the price could gap up tomorrow like Bayswater did shortly after I sold it.

However, the trick of successful investing is very simple: keep your losses small and let your winners fly.

By selling Aurelian now, I don't lose any money (unless the stock gaps down severely tomorrow) because my stop was trailing the share price.

So I am guaranteed no loss on this speculation.

However, if I stick with the stock believing this great story of one of the best drill results ever, I leave myself vulnerable to further losses.

Yes, the stock may quickly rebound, but seriously, you (or anybody else) never knows for sure.

So I feel this is the safest and most prudent thing to do at the moment.

Buy The Real Deal, Not The One Feeding Off The Scraps

Sat, 15 Jul 2006 11:54:03 -0400

In my opinion there has been a lot of hype right now about the current play that is "hot", that is the Cordillera del Condor area in Ecuador. Aurelian recently intersected some of the best grades in a long time there.

Now of course every time a company like Aurelian makes a huge break with great results, there always seems to be a big rush to claim all the land around the first company's claims.

In the case of Aurelian, there are now several companies vying for investor's attention by saying they are right beside Aurelian and they will find grades just as good or even better than Aurelian.

Now I don't buy this and I think investors come out better time after time going with the real deal rather than the tiny companies feeding off the scraps.

The last hot play that I can recall was the Mont Laurier one of which Nova Uranium was the top dog there. They kept quoting 77 lbs historical resource and during the time period until the drill results, the price rose 1097% from bottom to top.

ARU Speculative Buy

Tue, 04 Jul 2006 13:43:48 -0400

Aurelian Resources is a company that I have mentioned briefly in the past couple weeks. The chart is madness and I expressed concerns about such quick and such profound share price movements.

However, as long as the price stays above the trend line, I cannot bet against it. I am not smarter than the market and right now the market is telling me that the share price could still go higher.

The thing that I still haven't seen yet is the distribution by the pros. I have identified the accumulation phase in the chart below but to me, the distribution phase is still to come. It could be tomorrow or next week but I'm guessing it will be more towards the beginning of september. Why?

Well ARU's $20M private placement holding period expires on August 28th and sometime around then could be the distribution phase. I am speculating but what level headed individual wouldn't want to cash in 10 bagger gains off their private placement only 4 months ago?

The Story Behind Canadian Mining Speculation

Mon, 03 Jul 2006 15:11:40 -0400

I just finished reading a tiny little 100 page book by the title of "The Story Behind Canadian Mining Speculation". It was written about 50 years ago by T.H. Mitchell and it should be a must read for any current mining speculator. If you can get your hands on it that is. Try searching for it at your university library because that is where I found this copy. Anyways, here are some great bits of information that I got from the book:

It should be clearly understood by the Canadian investor that the majority of the "penny" stock companies are worthless and always will be worthless. This has been proven time and time again. Yet their stocks have a definite value as a speculative trading medium; in other words, the stocks themselves are not worthless so long as somebody is willing to buy them. Thus, one has to be pessimistic about the possibilities of the companies, yet optimistic about the profit opportunities which their stocks present. And these are the sentiments which guide the professional traders.

Mexican Election

Sun, 02 Jul 2006 16:20:51 -0400

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - For all the talk of the rise of Latin America's left, Mexican presidential hopeful Felipe Calderon could show on Sunday that, while unfashionable, U.S.-style conservatives can still win hearts and minds.
Years of stuttering market reforms under outgoing President Vicente Fox from free trade to a credit card bonanza have taken root among many voters who fear leftists so popular in countries like Venezuela and Bolivia could bring ruin.
Leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is a slight favorite in Sunday's elections but polls are so close that a win for the Harvard-educated Calderon, promising more foreign investment and pro-business reforms, is a real possibility.

I think that a win for Lopez would make mining executives with properties in Mexico just a little uneasy.

If Lopez got influenced by Chavez, then maybe he would also want to nationalize the mineral properties that are so valuable.

We shall see what hap

Mining Companies At Feasibility Stage

Thu, 29 Jun 2006 14:15:41 -0400

I found an old piece of paper on my desk today that had a list of several mining companies at the feasibility stage. In other words, they are looking at developing their exploration property into a mine. I think I compiled it a couple months ago so things may or may not have changed.

I have not done any research on any of them except for the fact that they are at the feasibility stage:

Gold

GBG.TO http://www.greatbasingold.com/gbg/Home.asp
MGD.V http://www.mandorin.ca/
AXM.V http://www.axmininc.com/DesktopDefault.aspx
VVI.V http://www.valenciaventures.com/
MGM.V http://www.morgainminerals.com/s/Home.asp
BAJ.V http://www.bajamining.com/

KRY's Chart Looks Great...

Wed, 28 Jun 2006 13:47:41 -0400

...Only if you're short!

Today we are dropping below the previous low in the downtrend and as you can see in the chart, every time we have done that, we have continued to go lower.

I have been short KRY a couple weeks now and I am beginning to see small paper profits. This is still an experimental position for me but the chart is telling me that the trend is down so that is why I am short.

The exit point for me will be a 30 day Moving Average crossover. Currently, this stands at $4.05 but it continues to adjust lower every day acting as a sliding stop loss to protect gains and prevent losses from getting too large.

The Next Great Shorting Opportunity?

Tue, 27 Jun 2006 20:27:34 -0400

The next great shorting opportunity I think is going to come in the shape of a company with the ticker symbol: ARU.V.

Yes, I am talking about Aurelian Resources. Yes, this is the company with probably the highest return this year. But when share prices go parabolic, they have a tendency to come back where they came from.

ARU's returns are nothing short of spectacular in the past 3 months. How does 3,561% sound? In only 3 months? That's the equivalent of a 14,244% annual return if my math is correct. And it might not be because I haven't worked with such high numbers before.

Now before you start thinking about jumping on this bandwagon, think to yourself, are these kind of returns normal? Are they to be expected?

To me this is a very speculative and almost too good to be true story. For a stock to go up this much from only about 8 press releases makes me think something fishy is going on.

I won't short this stock yet because it is still above its 30 day Moving Average so the trend is still up. In other words it might go higher still.

Brilliant Market Analysis

Tue, 13 Jun 2006 11:46:03 -0400

By Jack Chan at www.traderscorporation.com

6/11/2006

Thank you for your feedback and comments in regards to my previous commentary, “A golden opportunity?” In reaction, many readers have asked me why is it that after having been a consistent buyer of the gold market for the past five years, now am a seller of gold?

I have a simple answer: opportunity.

History often repeats itself to those who fail to learn from the past.

And history is unfolding, six years after the last lesson. But judging from the opinions of the general consensus, not many are seeing what is unfolding.

A 'Short' Experience

Mon, 12 Jun 2006 11:38:27 -0400

I have never shorted a stock in my life until today. I thought it was very risky because there is the possibility to lose more than you put in if you short a stock and hold on while it goes to the moon.

However, my readings on Trend Following have changed my opinions.

As long as you put in proper stops before you short a stock, there is no more risk than going long that same stock.

So today I decided to short 2 stocks in very little quantities to test the trends with little risk because I am putting in very small amounts of capital.

What are they?

Well I looked at the 52 week lows yesterday and I saw a name I have heard before: Centurion Energy: CUX.TO.

Except I remember it when it was one of the highest flying stocks, now it's a dog. So what do you do with dogs? You short them!

As you can see, the trend is obviously down and the price is well below its 30 day Moving Average (blue line).

My exit strategy is either get out at $7.70 which is a 25% stop loss or when the price crosses the 30 day M.A. However, if the stock continues to go lower (maybe around 15% lower than these levels), I will probably double by short position.

Introducing LatestDiamonds.com!

Tue, 06 Jun 2006 20:19:12 -0400

I would like to thank all you people here reading my opinions. I really appreciate it.

I would also like to thank you for making my latest... sites quite successful as well.

There are now 4...no 5 latest... sites:

and...

Yes, since I think that the diamond sector will become more and more popular over the coming year(s), it was a no-brainer for me.

There are currently 41 diamond stocks that are being tracked. This is about 1/3 of how many Uranium stocks are being tracking and about 1/2 of how many silver stocks exist right now.

In my opinion, that means that there is much room for growth in the sector.

Contest Coming Soon!

Sun, 28 May 2006 15:40:56 -0400

I recently heard an interview with Bill Murphy of GATA and he really impressed me with his passion and belief that the Gold price is manipulated and currently very underpriced.

He explained many of his arguments well but he said if you were still not a believer, to order his Gold Rush 21 dvd.

This was a conference that was held about a year ago and was organized by Bill Murphy and GATA. They gathered a good selection of gold manipulation believers and recorded the whole thing.

Basically the Gold Rush DVD is the conference in digital recorded format. I noticed that they offered discounts when buying more copies so I decided to order 5 copies. 1 for myself and 4 to give away in StockBullz contests.

Now I am still working on the logistics of having a contest with 1000+ entries so please give me a bit of time to organize the setup.

I have been very busy recently so I have only watched about half the Gold Rush DVD's. They are very good so far and I will ensure to do a proper review soon as well.

Where's the Market Heading Next?

Mon, 22 May 2006 22:58:14 -0400

This correction we've had for a week or two now has really begun to unveil some nice bargains. Many stocks are down 30-50% from their highs. Like I said, I think we might have a bounce this week but will go lower and/or sideways until around august.

Let me now highlight some other people's opinions:

Clive Manud :

The action on Friday was characteristic of a reversal and it was sector wide with Reversal Days showing up in the charts of the gold stock indices and many gold and silver stocks. The action in the metals themselves was less convincing, with silver looking like it had bottomed, at least for now, but gold itself looks rather ambiguous.

Even before they started to head south in earnest, Precious Metals stocks were seriously underperforming gold and silver, and as soon as the metals broke down, stocks caved in. The flip side of this relationship is that we can expect PM stocks to hit bottom ahead of the metals, and, when the time comes, we should be on the lookout for this as a great buying opportunity. On a trading basis we appear to be at a buy spot now, and some of the stronger stocks may not drop below the current lows. We should remain aware that while the metals are likely to drop to lower levels after a near-term bounce, stocks may not drop below current levels, or if they do, not by much.

Tough Times

Wed, 17 May 2006 17:12:39 -0400

Just like our price run-up in the market was perhaps overdone, it looks like our downturn will also be overdone.

The markets are never rational and I have a feeling we still might drop quite a bit.

The fundamentals of our commodity bull market haven't changed one bit but the emotions have.

People are beginning to panic and they just want to get out of all their resource stock as soon as possible.

It looks like we might have another period something like October 2005 which was a scary time to be holding Oil & Gas stocks in particular.

However, the patient and cool investor who did not panic profited very well if he just stuck with his positions as all the stocks rebounded very well as soon as October was done.

The one positive thing however will be that when this correction is done, there will be substantial gains to be made by buying some great companies at bargain prices.

So make sure you have some cash ready to buy in when the correction finishes. I still don't know when that will be, but I will try to be using charts and following the media. When the media turns unbelievably bearish on the market, gold, commodities etc, that will be the perfect time to get in.

Lightened Up My Positions A Little

Tue, 16 May 2006 12:45:04 -0400

I used this morning's rallies in NUC, CS, SVM to lighten up my positions in those stocks.

It looks to me like we might have further downside for a period of time that I can't predict yet.

But I have more cash right now so when I feel the right time has come, I will be able to get into some beat down stocks at great prices.

Here is a possible scenario for Capstone:

I we could get a crossover and a double bottom, I think that could be the sign of the end of the downtrend. If Capstone bottoms at $1.28, then it's forward P/E would be around 3.1.

The hard thing to judge right now is when the markets will turn around. It's all about psychology and everyone was very bullish for a long time so it could take some time, maybe even a month or two to get everybody thinking the bull run is over.

Looking over the SVM charts, it doesn't look great right now. We're about 25% off the tops so I am sure some people's stop losses will be going off.