StockBullz.com - Opinions on the Markets

ExxonMobil Executive: Low Oil Price Not Affecting Co Invest Plans

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 17:14:20 -0500

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- Current low oil prices aren't affecting ExxonMobil Corp.'s (XOM) spending plans, a company executive said Monday.

"The lower price environment is having no impact in terms of our investment," Russell Bellis, ExxonMobil's exploration director for Europe, Middle-East and North Africa told a conference.

When doing budget planning "we never envisioned prices like we had last year" where the oil price peaked at $147 a barrel, he said. Prices have since fallen to around $40 a barrel.

Asked if the sharp price drop could lead to bankruptcy for oil service companies, Bellis said he expects "viable contractors to continue to supply the industry." But he said "there may be some consolidation and some of them may go out of business."

Silvercorp really moving today!

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 12:44:01 -0500

Boy, is Silvercorp moving up today. It's up about 14% as I write this and showing really good strength. The company used to be one of my favorite picks when it was doing well and it will come back I am sure of that. The fantastic management team there has done a great job of becoming a low cost producer in China.

Put it on your watch list for sure. More to come in the next few days.

Imperial Oil Reads StockBullz

Thu, 29 Jan 2009 21:08:32 -0500

There are unconfirmed rumours that Imperial Oil executive read StockBullz. Just two days after the site denounced Big Oils' spending cuts, Imperial Oil has in fact decided to boost exploration spending.

“We do take a long term approach and we are very disciplined in terms of our investment process and our operational process,” said Imperial spokesman Gordon Wong. “It’s in times like these when you start to see those kinds of results.”
UBS Securities Canada Inc. analyst Andrew Potter said Imperial and Exxon Mobil, with their massive cash positions, are well positioned to take a bet on the oil sands.
“If you can afford to keep going, you are probably far better off in terms of labour productivity and availability when nobody else is around,” he said.
Mr. Potter said Imperial is one of the few in the oil industry planning to spend more money this year than last and Kearl will probably be one of the few oil sands projects to be sanctioned in 2009. (Read more here.)

Another Smart Company!

Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:41:21 -0500

Big news today was the hostile takeover bid for UTS by Total. In additions to Petrobras and Shell here is another company that is actually doing something smart (as opposed to slashing budgets!).

There have been $27.7-billion worth of transactions in this sector over the past four years. On average, properties have changed hands at $1.34 for each potential barrel of reserves that soak the sand.

Total's offer for UTS values the target company at just 14 cents for each barrel of reserves, or 9 per cent of the average price that previous buyers paid to gain control of oil sands properties. That's what a credit crunch, environmental uncertainty and plunging crude prices have done for the energy companies.

Good Read here and here.

Oil Company Executives Are A Bunch of Pansies

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 19:24:56 -0500

I want to highlight a situation that I haven't seen addressed yet (that I know yet). This is the fact that nearly ALL the oil companies are slashing spending by HUGE amounts.

Calgarians will see more layoffs, canceled projects and losses on investment this week and over the next several weeks as oil and gas companies deliver what analysts are predicting will be the worst fourth-quarter results in years.
The contrast with the third quarter, when many companies reported record profits, couldn't be more stark. As oil prices plunged from all-time highs last summer and credit markets tightened, trust companies have chopped distributions to investors, stock prices have plummeted and 2009 spending plans have been cut to the bone. (More here.)

Now I'm not oblivious to the fact that Oil prices are down about 70% from their peaks but why is EVERYBODY doing the exact same thing?

Vancouver Olympics Saga

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 19:20:24 -0500

A very interesting situation is occurring in Vancouver right now. Because of the economic crisis, the city of Vancouver is being held accountable for the projects, which was not the original idea of course.

Vancouver may have to borrow C$458 million ($375 million) or more to finish the 1,100 units by November, Mayor Gregor Robertson said at a news conference this month. That would almost double the city’s debt to about C$928 million, said Stephen Ogilvie, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s in Toronto. The credit- rating company said Jan. 13 that it might cut Vancouver from AA+.

The city took over financing of the C$1.1 billion housing complex after New York-based lender Fortress Investment Group LLC halted funding to the builder when costs ran C$125 million over budget. Taxpayers are reminded of Canada’s last Olympic-sized fiasco: The 1976 summer games in Montreal, which left Quebec with a C$1.5 billion debt that took decades to pay.

Anybody Still Out There?

Fri, 23 Jan 2009 23:56:46 -0500

Oh my! What an interesting 2008 has turned out to be. Almost a year has passed since my last post and it is safe to say that panic roams the streets.

Everywhere we turn we see job losses, company bailouts and general pessimism.

However, we as contrarians must remember that the herds of sheep always get slaughtered.

People have extremely short memories. Let me give you a couple examples.

Where you one of the people buy or selling real estate in Western Canada about a year ago? Remember how fast the prices were moving up? Remember how nearly 50% of TLC's programming was about home renovations and focusing on showing incompetent beginners making tens of thousands of dollars by flipping homes? Instead of buying then, it was the perfect time to be selling!

We have heard this a million times but I must say it again. Do the opposite of what the masses are doing!

If everyone is extremely pessimistic, you should be optimistic. When everyone is selling, you should open your eyes to the tantalizing deals available out there.

Worst Over?

Thu, 24 Jan 2008 10:11:33 -0500

I think there is a good chance we have reached a bottom. The day the Venture was down around 9% was the panic selling day and since then it looks like we are on track for a 3rd day of good gains.

If you sold out your test position in Mega, consider coming back in again. It may seem weird to exit a stock then come back into it but nobody can ever predict 100% what will happen in the future. So we have to test our theories with smaller positions and then increase our position as the stock goes up.

Because if the price is going up that means we are right. And until the stock stops going up we should continue adding to our position.

If you are not familiar with this technique, try it out and see if it gives you results. I have found this technique to be the most effective in minimizing losses while still providing good gains because we try to ride out positions as long as possible.

Mega Buy

Thu, 17 Jan 2008 10:53:39 -0500

Oh no! It's the end of the world! Big News was that TSX loses 623 points in just a couple days.

It's funny that right before this everything was so positive with Gold hitting new highs and newspaper articles talking about fund manager's "herd mentality".

So what does this all mean?

Well we are at a very volatile time in our markets with large moves up and down with a general flat trend. I myself am holding put in my positions and establishing some test postions in some beaten up stocks.

What stocks?

Well the first I want to talk about is Mega Uranium (mga.to).

If you look Mega's chart there is nothing bright about it. The stock is off of its highs in the 9 dollar range to its current price below $3!!!

So yes you can say it has taken a beating!

But the thing that I find very positive about it is that Sheldon Inwentash, its CEO has been buying up the stock hand over first the last month or so in the $3 level.

This is a man who has made money time after time with stock after stock. In other words, this is a man who has a very good reputation and who's actions we should watch closely.

Time To Get This Show Back On The Road!

Wed, 02 Jan 2008 19:01:57 -0500

Happy New Year!

Boy I just looked at the time I posted last and it has been almost a full year since my last post. The past year has been a very challenging one for resource stocks but I am very optimistic about 2008.

Oil is over $100, Uranium is bouncing back to $90 but where are our dear share prices?????

In the pits!!! And more than half of Canadian fund managers are predicting drops in the TSX.

But remember folks, monkeys have a better chance of outperforming the TSX than fund managers do, so whatever they say to do, we should be doing the oposite!

So how did I do in 2007 you may ask??

Well here is a little rundown of what I was in:

KXL: Huge gains, I am very satisfied. Stock went up sharply, then down sharply. I started buying when it was flatlining. The stock is now hitting new highs and I still in but with my finger ready to pull the trigger if it drops 10-20% from current levels.

NUX: Was a large holding of mine. Am slowly downsizing but the management team is still great on this dormant stock. Good news will definetely boost this stock very fast. Right now sitting at about two bucks off highs of around 3.50 so it'll be interesting to see how long it will take to run higher.

The Contrarian Approach Right Now On Uranium Stocks

Tue, 23 Jan 2007 15:42:41 -0500

This past weekend, one of the biggest resource conferences was held in Vancouver again this year. I was not there but I know several people who were.

Here is a quick comment that is very interesting to me: I just got home from the Gold Show. A quick comment. There was a panel on uranium and the general consensus was that the sector has had a really good run and it was time to get careful.

Although I agree that uranium has had a nice run the analysts are all just looking out for their own necks. Nobody wants to stick it out and take a different view.

The way they are thinking is that some profits have been made so now I can't go wrong at all by telling somebody to take profits. But they don't even go that far. They say "get careful". What does that exactly mean? Sell some? How much? So many questions...

Anyways, I am going to stick my neck out and say to stay fully invested in uranium and keep on buying more. I think when these boys all join up again with the stocks up much higher than they are now and encouraging everybody to keep buying more, then that will be the time to start selling.

Thoughts

Wed, 03 Jan 2007 19:00:54 -0500

The Uranium sector as a whole has been quite hot for the past couple months and our favorite size of stocks, juniors, have been performing very nicely, with many posting triple digit returns.

However, instead of chasing the hottest stocks, I am looking for companies in the right resource sectors (such as uranium) that are lagging.

Most small cap resource stocks, due to their speculative nature, go in cycles. That is, they go up and then they come down. Therefore, to profit the most and on the most consistent basis, it is preferable to buy small cap resource stocks after they have fallen from their highs and are either flat lining or beginning a new upward trend.

Then after you have made some decent profits (you decide what you want), cash in your profits because there is a very high chance that the stock will come down after a while.

So in summary, try obey the ever lasting principle of "buy low, sell high".

Before I conclude this posting, keep in mind that patience is very important. It can sometimes take weeks or even months for your stock to bounce from its range. Stick with it for a while and you will often be rewarded. If you cut too fast and start to chase the fastest moving stocks at the moment you will undoubtedly get caught on the downfall of most of these because they drop as fast or even faster than they rise.

Unpredictability Of The Future

Tue, 24 Oct 2006 21:31:32 -0400

In the past 3 days we have witnessed what I think is a wonderful (or not so wonderful) example of the unpredictability of the future; that is, nobody can successfully predict the future on a consistant basis.

In case you have not read the news yet, here it is:

Cameco Corporation reported today that all underground areas of the Cigar Lake project are expected to be filled with water following a rock fall yesterday. Efforts to protect the main shaft and key underground infrastructure by closing bulkhead doors were not successful. Everyone was safely evacuated by 11:30 a.m. today. There were no injuries and no impact on the environment.
Cameco will now investigate options to restore access to the mine. Production startup was previously planned for early 2008 and we will assess a new production timetable after remediation plans are developed. Cameco is operator and majority owner of the Cigar Lake uranium project located in northern Saskatchewan.
The incident began at 1:10 p.m. on Sunday, October 22, 2006, in the future production area that previously had been dry. At 8:45 p.m., in accordance with existing contingency plans, the company decided to close two bulkhead doors to contain the water inflow within the future mining area. The doors were closed at 5:00 a.m. on Monday, October 23. While monitoring the area, we found that one of the doors did not seal properly which allowed significant water to flow into the processing area. Efforts to fully seal the door were not successful and the inflow exceeded capacity to pump out the water.

What The Contrarian Would Do Right Now:

Thu, 05 Oct 2006 11:58:30 -0400

Contrarians almost always make money because they do exactly the opposite of what the masses are doing.

Let's see what the masses are doing:

"Gold in New York

tumbled the most in three months as plunging energy costs reduced the

appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Gold

is down 21 percent from a 26-year high of $732 an ounce on May 12,

partly because the price of oil has dropped 24 percent from a record in

July. Crude oil fell below $60 a barrel to a seven-month low."

"'Everybody is getting out of their positions,'

said Nick Ruggiero, a trader at Eagle Futures. 'Crude came off almost

$3 this week, and gold is following.' Losses accelerated after gold

fell below $600. 'That was a big number,' Ruggiero said. 'We had a lot

Massive Uranium Merger!

Tue, 19 Sep 2006 02:06:56 -0400

TORONTO, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Denison Mines Inc. (DEN.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) and International Uranium Corp. (IUC.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) have agreed to merge in an all-stock deal that will create a mid-tier uranium producer, the companies said on Monday.
Under the terms of the agreement, Denison shareholders will exchange each share for 2.88 IUC common shares. Based on IUC's Monday closing price of C$5.91 on the Toronto Stock Exchange, that places a value of C$17.02 for every Denison share. Total value of deal is about C$522 million, based on 30.7 million outstanding Denison shares.