StockBullz.com: Your Daily Stocks Blog

Just check out their chart from today:

I correctly predicted a heavy up day for Tim Horton's today. Remember, they were planning to sell at $21 a couple weeks ago. The stock opened up sharply but went down from there.

I didn't buy it of course and here are some reasons why.

-I was not comfortable with all the hype in the media. Usually when everyone thinks something will go up, it goes down. You have to invest before the crowd to make serious money.

-Wendy's raised their price by several dollars just before the IPO. This is good for Wendy's shareholders but not as good for someone planning to buy Tim Horton's today. (Actually if I had to buy Tim Horton's or Wendy's, I would buy Wendy's because they are not as hyped and they still own 85% of Tim Horton's which they will be giving to Wendy's shareholders before the year is done.

-Face it, the restaurant business is not the hot sector right now. Commodities and energy are/is. Companies from other sectors might go up but it's much harder to find them. Most commodity companies are going up right now whether they are good or not. Our job is to find the best ones which have the best chance of going higher than the average company.

I mentioned a couple days ago that today would be the Tim Horton's IPO. Sorry, but it's actually tomorrow. The sources I was looking at were wrong. Anyways, here is another short article about it:

The most-hyped IPO in recent Canadian history makes its debut on the stock markets Friday with a giant Bay Street party.

A giant Tim Horton's trailer will be parked in front of the TSX, serving up coffee and doughnuts to the brokers who've been lusting after Tim's shares since the company first announced plans to go public. Hundreds of franchisees and guests will attend what is slated to be the largest listing ceremony in the history of the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Few ordinary investors will be lucky enough to get in on the ground floor. Because the share offering was masterminded in the U.S. by Goldman Sachs, institutions are likely to bag the biggest chunk of Tim's shares. Ordinary investors who've turned Tim's into a Canadian icon with their almost-daily coffee-and-doughnut purchases will be left to fight it out in the after-market, and will likely pay a higher price for their shares.

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One thing I forgot to mention is that Tim Horton's IPO is set for Thursday.

The stock will trade on the TSX and NYSE under the symbol THI.

Here are some comments from a Reuters news article:

No. 3 U.S. burger chain Wendy's International Inc. <WEN.N> is due to sell a roughly 15 percent stake in its Canadian coffee-and-doughnuts chain Tim Hortons Inc. on Thursday. The deal would be worth about $551 million if it prices at the midpoint of its forecast range.

IPO analysts said Tim Hortons, which operates the largest restaurant chain in Canada, will likely meet with a warm investor reception in light of the strong performance of another recent fast-food spin-off. Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. <CMG.N> doubled in their January debut after McDonald's Corp. <MCD.N> spun off the casual chain in an IPO.