Base Metal Stocks
Profile: Lukas Lundin
Like I've said many times in the past, I love to follow what the rich and successful are doing.
I figure that if they have gotten to be rich, they will continue to increase their wealth by continuing to do what made them money in the past. Now of course, many people go from rags to riches and back to rags within a lifetime but I would think that more of those individuals stay wealthy.
The next person that I will begin to track is Lukas Lundin. Myself being quite new to him, here is the profile he likes companies he's affiliated with to use:
Born in 1958, Lukas Lundin was raised in Stockholm, Sweden and educated at the Ecole Internationale de Genève in Switzerland. In 1981, Mr. Lundin graduated from the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (engineering).
At age 25, Mr. Lundin headed International Petroleum Corporation's extensive and rapidly growing international operations and was based in the Company's technical office in Dubai, U.A.E. for over 12 years. From 1990 to June 1995, Mr. Lundin was President of International Musto Exploration Limited and was responsible for Musto's acquisition of the Bajo de la Alumbrera deposit. Bajo de la Alumbrera was the subject of a $500 million takeover by Rio Algom and North Limited and is now one of the largest gold/copper producers in the world. Mr. Lundin was also responsible for Argentina Gold and the discovery of the multi-million ounce Veladero gold deposit. Veladero was the subject of a $300 million takeover by Homestake in 1999. In addition, Mr. Lundin was a senior Director of Lundin Oil AB and was instrumental in the $480 million takeover of Lundin Oil by Talisman Energy in 2001. Mr. Lundin is currently a Director of a number of publicly traded resource companies.
A world traveler and motorcycle racing enthusiast, Mr. Lundin has twice completed the grueling 10,000 kilometre Dakar race across the Sahara Desert. He has climbed Mount Kilimanjaro, Mont Blanc and the Matterhorn. In the winter, he can be found helicopter skiing in Whistler and in summer, dirt bike racing with his four boys in Baja California.
Great Capstone News
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(CCNMatthews - May 25, 2006) - CAPSTONE MINING (TSX:CS - News) is pleased to report the recent progress at its Cozamin copper-silver-zinc mine located in Zacatecas State, Mexico.
Highlights
- Construction is 95% complete with mill and plant testing currently underway.
- Commissioning is planned to begin June 1.
- Total cash on hand will be US$20.0 million after all construction costs are incurred.
- Estimated average annual metal production is 16 million lbs of copper, 700,000 oz of silver and 4 million lbs of zinc at 1,000 tonnes per day.
San Roberto Mine
Four stopes are being developed for mining (2 are complete) and producing ore. These stopes are located on the east and west side of level 8 and central and east side of level 9. On level 9, an additional 30 m of drifting to the east will be completed by the end of May. Development on level 10 has commenced with drifting both east and west on this level. To date, 15,000 tonnes of ore have been stockpiled on surface.
Where's the Market Heading Next?
This correction we've had for a week or two now has really begun to unveil some nice bargains. Many stocks are down 30-50% from their highs. Like I said, I think we might have a bounce this week but will go lower and/or sideways until around august.
Let me now highlight some other people's opinions:
The action on Friday was characteristic of a reversal and it was sector wide with Reversal Days showing up in the charts of the gold stock indices and many gold and silver stocks. The action in the metals themselves was less convincing, with silver looking like it had bottomed, at least for now, but gold itself looks rather ambiguous.
Even before they started to head south in earnest, Precious Metals stocks were seriously underperforming gold and silver, and as soon as the metals broke down, stocks caved in. The flip side of this relationship is that we can expect PM stocks to hit bottom ahead of the metals, and, when the time comes, we should be on the lookout for this as a great buying opportunity. On a trading basis we appear to be at a buy spot now, and some of the stronger stocks may not drop below the current lows. We should remain aware that while the metals are likely to drop to lower levels after a near-term bounce, stocks may not drop below current levels, or if they do, not by much.
Tough Times
Just like our price run-up in the market was perhaps overdone, it looks like our downturn will also be overdone.
The markets are never rational and I have a feeling we still might drop quite a bit.
The fundamentals of our commodity bull market haven't changed one bit but the emotions have.
People are beginning to panic and they just want to get out of all their resource stock as soon as possible.
It looks like we might have another period something like October 2005 which was a scary time to be holding Oil & Gas stocks in particular.
However, the patient and cool investor who did not panic profited very well if he just stuck with his positions as all the stocks rebounded very well as soon as October was done.
The one positive thing however will be that when this correction is done, there will be substantial gains to be made by buying some great companies at bargain prices.
So make sure you have some cash ready to buy in when the correction finishes. I still don't know when that will be, but I will try to be using charts and following the media. When the media turns unbelievably bearish on the market, gold, commodities etc, that will be the perfect time to get in.
Lightened Up My Positions A Little
I used this morning's rallies in NUC, CS, SVM to lighten up my positions in those stocks.
It looks to me like we might have further downside for a period of time that I can't predict yet.
But I have more cash right now so when I feel the right time has come, I will be able to get into some beat down stocks at great prices.
Here is a possible scenario for Capstone:
I we could get a crossover and a double bottom, I think that could be the sign of the end of the downtrend. If Capstone bottoms at $1.28, then it's forward P/E would be around 3.1.
The hard thing to judge right now is when the markets will turn around. It's all about psychology and everyone was very bullish for a long time so it could take some time, maybe even a month or two to get everybody thinking the bull run is over.
Looking over the SVM charts, it doesn't look great right now. We're about 25% off the tops so I am sure some people's stop losses will be going off.







